The sun’s activity follows an approximately 11-year cycle, fluctuating between periods of high and low energy. We are currently in Solar Cycle 25, which began in December 2019, and it’s now entering its declining phase. This means fewer sunspots, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) overall. However, this doesn’t rule out strong aurora displays in 2026 and beyond.
Solar Maximum: Where We Stand
Solar maximum, the period of peak activity, is defined by the highest monthly sunspot count. While the last few years have seen heightened solar activity – including visible auroras at unusually low latitudes in 2024 and 2025 – the peak likely occurred in October 2024. This shifts the current trend toward fewer major solar events.
The sun produced 19 X-class flares in 2025, but fewer than in 2024, which saw over 50. The strongest flare in 2025 reached X5.1, while 2024 registered an X9 flare – the most powerful Earth-facing event of the cycle so far. These flares often trigger CMEs, eruptions of plasma that can cause geomagnetic storms when directed at Earth.
Geomagnetic Storms and Aurora Visibility
Geomagnetic storms, ranked from G1 to G5, are what drive auroras to lower latitudes. In 2025, a G4 (severe) storm occurred in November, but 2024 saw two stronger events: a G5 (extreme) and another G4. Both of these storms resulted in widespread aurora sightings across the globe.
The key takeaway is that strong flares and geomagnetic storms don’t disappear entirely during the declining phase. Historically, some of the most powerful solar events happen after solar maximum, sometimes years later.
Historical Precedents
Consider Solar Cycle 23, which peaked in 2001. Years after this maximum, in 2003 and 2005-2006, flares exceeding X10.0 levels still occurred. One flare in 2003 may have even reached X40 – though precise measurements were limited. This activity led to back-to-back G5 geomagnetic storms around Halloween, bringing auroras to low latitudes two years into the cycle’s decline.
Similarly, Solar Cycle 24 peaked in 2014, but its largest flares occurred in September 2017 – over three years later. While these events weren’t Earth-directed, they demonstrate that powerful solar activity can linger even as the cycle wanes.
Even though overall frequency will drop, the sun still has the capacity for intense events during the declining phase, meaning strong auroras remain a possibility in 2026 and beyond.
In conclusion, while Solar Cycle 25 is moving into a less active phase, the potential for significant aurora displays isn’t over. History shows that some of the most dramatic events can occur years after solar maximum, making 2026 and subsequent years still worth watching for spectacular celestial shows.
